Oil Security Index: Who is at risk?

The Oil Security Index combines seven metrics to provide a measure for a country’s oil security.  It is designed to make understanding oil security and how different countries compare simpler and clearer.  The map, tables, and graphs below present the rankings of the 13 countries included in the Oil Security Index overall, as well as their rankings and results for each metric. The U.S. Index Score is also provided from 2000 to the present day. For Q2 2014, the United States ranks 5th overall.

 

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What is Oil Security? »

What is Oil Security?

The term oil security can mean different things to different countries. For some—particularly those almost exclusively reliant on imports—physical supply security takes precedence over nearly any other measure. For others, physical supplies may be more dependable, but overall dependence on oil and inefficient use of oil leave their economies exposed to high and volatile oil prices. For each country, it is ultimately a combination of factors: their economy’s structural dependency on oil; their exposure to the price of oil and changes in this price; and the physical security of their oil supplies.

Oil Security Rank

Most Secure
Least Secure

Oil Security Trend

Positive
Neutral
Negative

  Overall Ranking Oil Security Trend Structural Dependency Economic Exposure Supply Security
Oil Intensity Fuel Consumption per Capita Spending on Oil Percent of GDP Spending on Net Oil Imports Percent of GDP Oil Exports Percent of Total Exports Oil Supply Security Oil Stockholdings Percent of Consumption
      View Graph

Oil Intensity

  • United Kingdom
  • Japan
  • Germany
  • United States
  • Australia
  • Canada
  • China
  • Mexico
  • South Africa
  • Brazil
  • India
  • Russia
  • Saudi Arabia
View Graph

Fuel Consumption per Capita

  • India
  • China
  • South Africa
  • Brazil
  • Russia
  • Mexico
  • United Kingdom
  • Japan
  • Germany
  • Canada
  • Australia
  • United States
  • Saudi Arabia
View Graph

Spending on Oil Percent of GDP

  • Canada
  • United Kingdom
  • Germany
  • Australia
  • Japan
  • United States
  • China
  • Brazil
  • Mexico
  • South Africa
  • Russia
  • India
  • Saudi Arabia
View Graph

Spending on Net Oil Imports Percent of GDP

  • Saudi Arabia
  • Russia
  • Canada
  • Mexico
  • Brazil
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
  • Australia
  • Germany
  • Japan
  • China
  • South Africa
  • India
View Graph

Oil Exports Percent of Total Exports

  • South Africa
  • Germany
  • China
  • Japan
  • Australia
  • United States
  • Brazil
  • United Kingdom
  • Mexico
  • India
  • Canada
  • Russia
  • Saudi Arabia
View Graph

Oil Supply Security

  • Canada
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
  • Australia
  • Mexico
  • South Africa
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Brazil
  • Germany
  • Japan
  • China
  • India
  • Russia
View Graph

Oil Stockholdings Percent of Consumption

  • Saudi Arabia
  • Japan
  • Germany
  • Canada
  • United States
  • South Africa
  • United Kingdom
  • Australia
  • Mexico
  • India
  • Brazil
  • China
  • Russia
Japan 1st

Oil Security Trend

Japan’s highly-efficient vehicle fleet helps cap oil demand, rendering Fuel Consumption per Capita the lowest among developed countries. Sizeable oil stockpiles also provide some cushion against the possibility of supply shocks.

2nd 0.32 8th 0.58 5th 2.9% 10th 2.5% 4th 2% 10th 4.8 2nd 162%
Germany 2nd

Oil Security Trend

Despite being a sizeable net importer of oil, high levels of efficiency (it currently ranks 3rd in Oil Intensity) and a well-developed pipeline infrastructure mitigate Germany’s oil security risk. Germany also has sizeable oil stockpiles (higher than the United States, relative to consumption) to guard against supply shocks.

3rd 0.40 9th 0.77 3rd 2.1% 9th 2.3% 2nd 1% 9th 5.2 3rd 143%
United Kingdom 3rd

Oil Security Trend

The United Kingdom has suffered declining domestic oil production, which has been only partly offset by easing demand.  This has resulted in a substantial weakening of its Oil Supply Security (from 8.2 in 2009 to 7.0 since Q2 2013).

 

1st 0.31 7th 0.56 2nd 2.0% 6th 0.7% 8th 9% 2nd 7.0 7th 58%
Canada 4th

Oil Security Trend

High and rising domestic oil production more than meets Canada’s domestic demands and attracts sizeable direct foreign investment. As a major oil exporter, particularly to the United States, Negative Total Spending on Net Oil Imports as a Percentage of GDP is also a boon.

6th 0.94 10th 1.30 1st 1.7% 3rd -3.7% 11th 20% 1st 8.0 4th 124%
United States 5th

Oil Security Trend

Most measures of U.S. oil security and reliance have improved over the past decade despite the sharp increase in oil prices. For example, U.S. oil intensity has fallen by one third, and the quantity of oil imports has also declined as consumption has eased and production has risen.

4th 0.56 12th 1.75 6th 3.0% 7th 1.4% 6th 6% 3rd 6.7 5th 114%
South Africa 6th

Oil Security Trend

Although South Africa’s economy is not particularly reliant on oil, oil makes up a large share of its import bill (it ranks 12th in Total Spending on Net Oil Imports). Consumption-led growth is also increasing the country’s demand for petroleum products, with Fuel Consumption per Capita near tripling since 2000.

9th 1.03 3rd 0.33 10th 5.0% 12th 4.9% 1st 1% 6th 5.8 6th 81%
China 7th

Oil Security Trend

Despite improvements in vehicle efficiency, China remains heavily reliant on oil and, increasingly, oil imports (the country ranks 11th in Total Spending on Net Oil Imports as a Percentage of GDP). The country also relies heavily on relatively unstable and unpredictable regimes in the Middle East and West Africa, as well as Russia.

7th 0.95 2nd 0.17 7th 4.0% 11th 2.6% 3rd 1% 11th 4.8 12th 17%
Brazil 8th

Oil Security Trend

Despite (and occasionally because of) the sizeable use of ethanol as an alternative to oil in the transportation sector, Brazilian consumers pay a relatively high price for retail fuel, but consume among the lowest on a per capita basis (it currently ranks 4th in Fuel Consumption per Capita).

10th 1.11 4th 0.34 8th 4.1% 5th 0.4% 7th 7% 8th 5.5 11th 24%
Mexico 9th

Oil Security Trend

Mexico’s relatively high level of oil production and oil exports, combined with its improving demand-side efficiency, have helped improve its oil security outlook in recent years, though fiscal reliance on oil remains a vulnerability. The country’s Total Spending on Oil as a Percentage of GDP is also among the highest in the Index.

8th 0.96 6th 0.46 9th 4.8% 4th -2.6% 9th 14% 5th 6.0 9th 32%
Australia 10th

Oil Security Trend

In recent years, improvement in Australia’s oil intensity has stagnated due to the increase in energy-intensive mining driven in large part by China’s booming demand for commodities. Australia’s Fuel Consumption per Capita is also among the highest in the Index (11th).

5th 0.62 11th 1.42 4th 2.7% 8th 1.7% 5th 3% 4th 6.6 8th 33%
India 11th

Oil Security Trend

Although the oil intensity of India’s economy has decreased by 30 percent since 2000, the volumes of oil being imported and consumed have risen sharply, undermining its fiscal and external balances (it currently ranks 13th in Total Spending on Net Oil Imports as a Percentage of GDP).

11th 1.17 1st 0.06 12th 6.9% 13th 4.9% 10th 16% 12th 4.8 10th 24%
Saudi Arabia 12th

Oil Security Trend

Saudi Arabia’s high oil intensity, rising domestic energy use, and fiscal reliance on oil make it extremely vulnerable to changing oil prices. The oil intensity of the economy and the average oil use per capita is high and rising, about 10 times and 3 times greater respectively than the most efficient countries.

13th 3.61 13th 1.92 13th 9.1% 1st -39.3% 13th 88% 7th 5.6 1st 176%
Russia 13th

Oil Security Trend

Russia’s high oil intensity, limited oil stockpiles, and heavy dependence of its fiscal account on oil export revenues contribute to a low ranking.  As a result of its poor business environment and policy uncertainty, Russia’s Oil Supply Security is also the lowest despite being a major oil producer.

12th 2.65 5th 0.42 11th 5.7% 2nd -13.4% 12th 52% 13th 2.8 13th 12%
  U.S. Overall Index Score Structural Dependency Economic Exposure Supply Security
Oil Intensity Fuel Consumption per Capita Spending on Oil Percent of GDP Spending on Net Oil Imports Percent of GDP Oil Exports Percent of Total Exports Oil Supply Security Oil Stockholdings Percent of Consumption
U.S. Spotlight » View Graph

U.S. Overall Index Score

  • Oil Intensity
  • Fuel Consumption per Capita
  • Spending on Oil Percent of GDP
  • Spending on Net Oil Imports Percent of GDP
  • Oil Exports Percent of Total Exports
  • Oil Supply Security
  • Oil Stockholdings Percent of Consumption
  • U.S. Overall Index Score
View Graph

Oil Intensity

  • Oil Intensity
  • Fuel Consumption per Capita
  • Spending on Oil Percent of GDP
  • Spending on Net Oil Imports Percent of GDP
  • Oil Exports Percent of Total Exports
  • Oil Supply Security
  • Oil Stockholdings Percent of Consumption
  • U.S. Overall Index Score
View Graph

Fuel Consumption per Capita

  • Oil Intensity
  • Fuel Consumption per Capita
  • Spending on Oil Percent of GDP
  • Spending on Net Oil Imports Percent of GDP
  • Oil Exports Percent of Total Exports
  • Oil Supply Security
  • Oil Stockholdings Percent of Consumption
  • U.S. Overall Index Score
View Graph

Spending on Oil Percent of GDP

  • Oil Intensity
  • Fuel Consumption per Capita
  • Spending on Oil Percent of GDP
  • Spending on Net Oil Imports Percent of GDP
  • Oil Exports Percent of Total Exports
  • Oil Supply Security
  • Oil Stockholdings Percent of Consumption
  • U.S. Overall Index Score
View Graph

Spending on Net Oil Imports Percent of GDP

  • Oil Intensity
  • Fuel Consumption per Capita
  • Spending on Oil Percent of GDP
  • Spending on Net Oil Imports Percent of GDP
  • Oil Exports Percent of Total Exports
  • Oil Supply Security
  • Oil Stockholdings Percent of Consumption
  • U.S. Overall Index Score
View Graph

Oil Exports Percent of Total Exports

  • Oil Intensity
  • Fuel Consumption per Capita
  • Spending on Oil Percent of GDP
  • Spending on Net Oil Imports Percent of GDP
  • Oil Exports Percent of Total Exports
  • Oil Supply Security
  • Oil Stockholdings Percent of Consumption
  • U.S. Overall Index Score
View Graph

Oil Supply Security

  • Oil Intensity
  • Fuel Consumption per Capita
  • Spending on Oil Percent of GDP
  • Spending on Net Oil Imports Percent of GDP
  • Oil Exports Percent of Total Exports
  • Oil Supply Security
  • Oil Stockholdings Percent of Consumption
  • U.S. Overall Index Score
View Graph

Oil Stockholdings Percent of Consumption

  • Oil Intensity
  • Fuel Consumption per Capita
  • Spending on Oil Percent of GDP
  • Spending on Net Oil Imports Percent of GDP
  • Oil Exports Percent of Total Exports
  • Oil Supply Security
  • Oil Stockholdings Percent of Consumption
  • U.S. Overall Index Score
2014 - Q2 100.7 103.2 0.56 101.6 1.75 98.3 3.0% 99.1 1.4% 97.5 6% 103.2 6.7 102.0 114%
2014 - Q1 100.5 103.2 0.56 101.6 1.75 97.9 3.4% 99.0 1.5% 97.6 6% 102.2 6.5 101.9 113%
2013 Average 100.6 103.2 0.56 102.3 1.71 98.2 3.1% 98.8 1.6% 97.4 6% 102.0 6.5 102.3 118%
2013 - Q4 100.6 103.2 0.56 102.1 1.72 98.0 3.3% 99.0 1.5% 97.4 6% 102.2 6.5 102.4 118%
2013 - Q3 100.7 103.2 0.56 102.2 1.72 98.2 3.1% 98.9 1.5% 97.4 6% 102.2 6.5 102.4 119%
2013 - Q2 100.7 103.2 0.56 102.5 1.70 98.2 3.1% 98.8 1.6% 97.4 6% 102.2 6.5 102.4 118%
2013 - Q1 100.5 103.2 0.56 102.5 1.70 98.4 3.0% 98.5 1.7% 97.3 6% 101.2 6.3 102.3 117%
2012 Average 100.2 102.8 0.59 101.9 1.74 97.9 3.3% 98.1 1.9% 97.3 6% 101.1 6.3 102.1 116%
2012 - Q4 100.3 102.8 0.59 102.4 1.70 98.1 3.2% 98.3 1.8% 97.3 6% 101.2 6.3 102.1 116%
2012 - Q3 100.2 102.8 0.59 102.1 1.72 98.0 3.3% 98.2 1.9% 97.3 6% 101.2 6.3 102.1 116%
2012 - Q2 100.1 102.8 0.59 101.6 1.75 97.7 3.5% 98.0 2.0% 97.3 6% 101.2 6.3 102.1 116%
2012 - Q1 100.1 102.8 0.59 101.4 1.76 98.0 3.3% 97.9 2.0% 97.3 6% 100.9 6.3 102.2 116%
2011 Average 100.0 102.5 0.61 100.7 1.81 97.9 3.4% 98.2 1.9% 97.8 5% 101.1 6.3 102.2 116%
2011 - Q4 100.0 102.5 0.61 101.1 1.78 97.8 3.4% 98.0 2.0% 97.5 6% 100.9 6.3 102.2 116%
2011 - Q3 99.9 102.5 0.61 100.7 1.81 97.5 3.8% 98.1 2.0% 97.7 6% 100.9 6.3 102.2 117%
2011 - Q2 100.0 102.5 0.61 100.5 1.82 97.9 3.4% 98.3 1.9% 97.9 5% 100.9 6.3 102.2 116%
2011 - Q1 100.2 102.5 0.61 100.5 1.82 98.4 3.0% 98.4 1.8% 98.2 5% 101.4 6.3 102.1 116%
2010 Average 100.4 102.4 0.61 100.8 1.80 98.6 2.8% 98.7 1.6% 98.6 4% 101.3 6.3 102.2 116%
2010 - Q4 100.3 102.4 0.61 100.6 1.81 98.6 2.8% 98.4 1.8% 98.3 4% 101.4 6.3 102.2 116%
2010 - Q3 100.3 102.4 0.61 101.1 1.78 98.4 2.9% 98.5 1.7% 98.4 4% 101.4 6.3 102.2 116%
2010 - Q2 100.4 102.4 0.61 101.1 1.78 98.6 2.8% 98.8 1.6% 98.6 4% 101.4 6.3 102.2 117%
2010 - Q1 100.4 102.4 0.61 100.5 1.82 98.7 2.7% 99.1 1.5% 98.9 3% 101.2 6.3 102.1 116%
2009 Average 100.1 102.4 0.61 99.7 1.86 99.3 2.1% 98.1 2.0% 98.8 3% 100.6 6.2 101.5 108%
2009 - Q4 100.3 102.4 0.61 99.7 1.86 98.8 2.6% 99.1 1.4% 99.1 3% 101.2 6.3 101.9 113%
2009 - Q3 100.3 102.4 0.61 99.9 1.85 99.2 2.2% 98.5 1.8% 99.0 3% 101.2 6.3 101.7 110%
2009 - Q2 100.1 102.4 0.61 99.6 1.87 99.9 1.7% 97.6 2.2% 98.7 3% 101.2 6.3 101.3 106%
2009 - Q1 99.5 102.4 0.61 99.8 1.86 99.4 2.1% 97.0 2.5% 98.5 4% 98.8 5.8 101.0 103%
2008 Average 99.1 101.8 0.65 99.5 1.88 97.1 4.1% 97.2 2.4% 98.9 3% 98.8 5.8 100.6 97%
2008 - Q4 99.0 101.8 0.65 100.1 1.84 96.8 4.3% 96.5 2.7% 98.4 4% 98.8 5.8 100.8 100%
2008 - Q3 98.9 101.8 0.65 99.4 1.88 96.3 4.7% 96.9 2.6% 98.7 4% 98.8 5.8 100.6 97%
2008 - Q2 99.2 101.8 0.65 99.2 1.89 97.5 3.7% 97.4 2.3% 99.1 3% 98.8 5.8 100.5 97%
2008 - Q1 99.3 101.8 0.65 99.3 1.89 97.7 3.5% 97.8 2.1% 99.3 2% 98.8 5.8 100.4 96%
2007 Average 99.5 101.5 0.66 99.3 1.88 98.6 2.8% 98.1 1.9% 99.4 2% 99.1 5.9 100.5 96%
2007 - Q4 99.4 101.5 0.66 99.4 1.88 98.2 3.2% 98.2 1.9% 99.4 2% 98.8 5.8 100.4 96%
2007 - Q3 99.5 101.5 0.66 99.4 1.88 98.5 2.9% 98.2 1.9% 99.4 2% 98.8 5.8 100.5 97%
2007 - Q2 99.5 101.5 0.66 99.4 1.88 99.0 2.5% 98.1 2.0% 99.4 2% 98.8 5.8 100.5 96%
2007 - Q1 99.6 101.5 0.66 99.2 1.90 98.8 2.6% 98.0 2.0% 99.4 2% 100.0 6.1 100.5 97%
2006 Average 99.5 101.2 0.68 98.9 1.91 98.5 2.9% 98.1 2.0% 99.5 2% 100.0 6.0 100.4 95%
2006 - Q4 99.4 101.2 0.68 98.7 1.92 98.2 3.1% 97.9 2.1% 99.5 2% 100.0 6.1 100.5 96%
2006 - Q3 99.5 101.2 0.68 99.0 1.91 98.2 3.1% 97.9 2.0% 99.5 2% 100.0 6.1 100.4 95%
2006 - Q2 99.5 101.2 0.68 98.9 1.91 98.7 2.7% 98.2 1.9% 99.5 2% 100.0 6.1 100.3 95%
2006 - Q1 99.5 101.2 0.68 98.9 1.91 98.7 2.6% 98.4 1.8% 99.5 2% 99.8 6.0 100.2 93%
2005 Average 99.6 100.9 0.70 99.2 1.90 99.0 2.4% 99.0 1.5% 99.6 2% 99.8 6.0 100.1 91%
2005 - Q4 99.5 100.9 0.70 99.0 1.90 98.4 3.0% 98.6 1.7% 99.5 2% 99.8 6.0 100.2 93%
2005 - Q3 99.6 100.9 0.70 99.0 1.91 99.0 2.5% 98.9 1.5% 99.6 2% 99.8 6.0 100.1 92%
2005 - Q2 99.7 100.9 0.70 99.2 1.90 99.2 2.2% 99.1 1.4% 99.7 1% 99.8 6.0 100.0 91%
2005 - Q1 99.8 100.9 0.70 99.4 1.88 99.4 2.1% 99.3 1.3% 99.8 1% 100.0 6.1 99.9 90%
2004 Average 100.0 100.9 0.70 99.6 1.87 99.8 1.8% 99.8 1.1% 99.9 1% 100.1 6.1 99.8 88%
2004 - Q4 99.9 100.9 0.70 99.6 1.87 99.4 2.1% 99.6 1.2% 99.9 1% 100.0 6.1 99.9 89%
2004 - Q3 99.9 100.9 0.70 99.5 1.88 99.7 1.8% 99.8 1.1% 100.0 1% 100.0 6.1 99.8 89%
2004 - Q2 100.0 100.9 0.70 99.5 1.87 99.9 1.7% 99.9 1.0% 100.0 1% 100.0 6.1 99.7 88%
2004 - Q1 100.1 100.9 0.70 99.7 1.86 100.1 1.5% 100.0 1.0% 100.0 1% 100.5 6.1 99.7 87%
2003 Average 100.2 100.7 0.71 100.1 1.84 100.1 1.5% 100.1 0.9% 100.0 1% 100.3 6.1 99.8 88%
2003 - Q4 100.1 100.7 0.71 99.8 1.86 100.0 1.5% 100.0 1.0% 99.9 1% 100.5 6.1 99.7 87%
2003 - Q3 100.2 100.7 0.71 100.2 1.83 100.1 1.4% 100.0 1.0% 99.9 1% 100.5 6.1 99.7 87%
2003 - Q2 100.2 100.7 0.71 100.3 1.83 99.9 1.7% 100.1 0.9% 100.0 1% 100.5 6.1 99.8 88%
2003 - Q1 100.2 100.7 0.71 100.2 1.83 100.2 1.4% 100.3 0.9% 100.0 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 90%
2002 Average 100.2 100.6 0.72 100.3 1.83 100.3 1.3% 100.3 0.8% 100.1 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 91%
2002 - Q4 100.2 100.6 0.72 100.3 1.83 100.1 1.5% 100.4 0.8% 100.1 1% 100.0 6.1 99.9 90%
2002 - Q3 100.2 100.6 0.72 100.3 1.83 100.2 1.4% 100.4 0.8% 100.1 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 91%
2002 - Q2 100.3 100.6 0.72 100.5 1.82 100.5 1.1% 100.4 0.8% 100.1 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 91%
2002 - Q1 100.2 100.6 0.72 100.2 1.84 100.5 1.1% 100.2 0.9% 100.1 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 90%
2001 Average 100.1 100.4 0.73 100.0 1.84 100.0 1.5% 100.0 1.0% 100.0 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 91%
2001 - Q4 100.1 100.4 0.73 100.1 1.84 100.2 1.4% 100.1 1.0% 100.0 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 91%
2001 - Q3 100.1 100.4 0.73 100.1 1.84 100.1 1.5% 100.0 1.0% 100.0 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 91%
2001 - Q2 100.1 100.4 0.73 100.0 1.84 100.1 1.4% 99.9 1.0% 100.0 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 91%
2001 - Q1 100.0 100.4 0.73 99.9 1.85 99.8 1.7% 100.1 1.0% 100.0 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 90%
2000 Average 100.0 100.0 0.75 100.0 1.85 100.0 1.6% 100.0 1.0% 100.0 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 91%
2000 - Q4 100.0 100.0 0.75 100.0 1.84 99.8 1.7% 100.0 1.0% 100.0 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 91%
2000 - Q3 100.0 100.0 0.75 100.0 1.85 100.0 1.5% 100.0 1.0% 100.0 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 91%
2000 - Q2 100.0 100.0 0.75 100.0 1.85 100.0 1.6% 100.0 1.0% 100.0 1% 100.0 6.1 100.0 91%
2000 - Q1 100.0 100.0 0.75 100.0 1.85 100.0 0.0% 100.0 0.0% 100.0 0% 100.0 6.1 100.0 1%

U.S. Overall Index Score

This score shows changes in U.S. oil security over time. It is calculated by combining results for each metric that are normalized over the entire time series. The score is indexed at 100 in Q1 2000, the first time period.

  Proved Reserves Production Consumption Economic Indicators
Billion Barrels (2012) 2012 (Million Barrels per day) Change 2008-2012 (Million Barrels per Day) 2012 (Million Barrels per Day) Change 2008-2012 (Million Barrels per Day) GDP Forecast 2013 (%) Annual Average GDP Growth 2008-2012 (%)
Australia 3.0 0.5 -0.1 1.0 0.1 2.5% 2.5%
Brazil 15.3 2.1 0.3 2.8 0.4 2.5% 3.2%
Canada 173.9 3.7 0.5 2.4 0.1 1.3% 1.2%
China 17.3 4.2 0.3 10.2 2.3 7.5% 9.3%
Germany 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 -0.1 0.5% 0.8%
India 5.7 0.9 0.1 3.7 0.6 5.4% 7.3%
Japan 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 -0.2 1.9% -0.1%
Mexico 11.4 2.9 -0.3 2.1 0.0 2.9% 1.7%
Russia 87.2 10.6 0.7 3.2 0.3 1.8% 1.8%
Saudi Arabia 265.9 11.5 0.9 2.9 0.6 5.1% 4.3%
South Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 2.1% 1.9%
United Kingdom 3.1 1.0 -0.6 1.5 -0.2 0.8% -0.4%
United States 35.0 8.9 2.1 18.6 -0.9 1.8% 0.6%

Structural Dependency

A country’s structural dependence on oil due to capital stock and other economic factors. The metrics typically change slowly over time, providing relatively consistent measures of vulnerability regardless of prevailing price conditions.

Economic Exposure

A country’s direct economic exposure to oil price volatility. Economic exposure is of course a function of structural dependency, but it is also more heavily driven by exogenous changes in global oil prices, and therefore variable over time. Economic exposure is measured by spending on oil across typical indicators, such as GDP and the current account.

Supply Security

A country’s vulnerability to physical supply disruptions and its response capabilities. While supply disruptions are typically addressed by the market through changes in prices, the adjustment period can be highly damaging for import-dependent nations, especially if adequate emergency inventories are unavailable.

Oil Intensity

This metric is calculated as the volume of oil consumed in a country divided by constant GDP (2005 U.S. dollars). [Barrels of oil consumed per $1,000 of GDP]

Fuel Consumption per Capita

This metric is calculated as the volume of fuel consumed in a country divided by the country’s population. The fuel volume includes gasoline, gas oil and diesel oil. [Gallons per Capita per Day]

Spending on Oil Percent of GDP

This metric is calculated as the volume of oil consumed in a country multiplied by the nominal oil price in U.S. dollars, then divided by the country’s nominal GDP in U.S. dollars. The oil volume includes crude oil, gas oil, diesel oil, gasoline, kerosene and fuel oil. Consumption is calculated from production, import, export and stock data. Oil prices are taken as the average wholesale spot market price across a selection of countries and regions. [Percent]

Spending on Net Oil Imports Percent of GDP

This metric is calculated as the volume of net oil imports multiplied by the oil price, then divided by nominal GDP. For net oil-exporting countries, this measures the revenue from net oil exports as a percentage of GDP. Again, this volume includes crude oil, gas oil, diesel oil, gasoline, kerosene and fuel oil. The oil price is the average wholesale market price. [Percent]

Oil Exports Percent of Total Exports

This metric is calculated as the value of oil exports divided by the value of total exports. The value of oil exports is calculated using the volume of exports multiplied by the oil price. Again, oil volume includes crude oil, gas oil, diesel oil, gasoline, kerosene and fuel oil. The oil price is the average wholesale market price. [Percent]

Oil Supply Security

Using a modified version of RGE’s SIRR indicators focused on political risk, terrorism risk, and political institutions scores, this metric is calculated as a weighted average of the scores for each country an Index country imports oil from (proportional to its share of total imports), and a score for the Index country’s domestic oil production (which can be zero). Combined this provides a composite risk score for a country’s estimated oil consumption (calculated as the total volume of domestic production plus net imports). [Score 0-10]

Oil Stockholdings Percent of Consumption

This metric is calculated as the total volume of stocks divided by the total volume of quarterly oil consumption. Crude oil, gas oil, diesel oil, gasoline, kerosene and fuel oil are included in the volume of stocks. The lack of reliable data for China, Russia and South Africa necessitates the use of estimates. Consumption is implied from production, import, export and stock data. [Percent]

About the Index

The Oil Security Index is an intuitive tool designed to enable policymakers, business leaders and the general public to easily measure and compare the relative oil security of more than a dozen countries around the world.

 

To develop a comparable, quantitative measure of oil security, the Index uses seven metrics that capture the three aspects of oil security. Taken together, this set of indicators provides a robust assessment of a country’s relative vulnerability to changing conditions in the global oil market: the structural dependency of a country’s economy on oil; a country’s economic exposure to the price of oil and changes to this price; and the physical security of a country’s oil supplies.

 

The rankings and results are intended to be compared and tracked over time. In addition, a numerical result is derived for the United States both overall and for each of its seven metric results. Quarterly data is used to construct the results and rankings beginning from Q1 2000.

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